A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
