Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
